EDIT: For clarification, I feel that the current situation on the ground in the war (vs. say a year ago) might indicate that an attack on Russia might not result in instant nuclear war, which is what prompted my question. I am well aware of the “instant nuclear Armageddon” opinion.
Serious question. I don’t need to be called stupid. I realize nuclear war is bad. Thanks!
I think it’s more likely that Nato would quickly just storm the occupied regions of Ukraine. Would probably be less risky of a nuclear Armageddon
I am down with this idea
It is a complete crapshoot because it all fepends on whether thechain of people between Putin and the missles are more interested in going out with him.
What I expect to happen with an invasion:
NATO invades and quickly disables a ton of Russian military objectives. This is because Russia is already flailling with Ukraine due to lack of discipline and outdated tech that theybhave mostly lost already. Plus they can’t do waves of conscript tactics at a moment’s notice.
Putin loses it and tries to launch the missiles knowing it is the end of hos time in power. His military advisors refuse the order and stage a coup, killing Putin and blaming NATO, then fight a half hearted conventional defense for show before negotiating a ceasefire.
But that is just my thought and the risk of a nuclear launch makes it a terrible idea to launch a surprise invasion as some nuclear sub might respond tonthe invasion if their cummunication is cut off.
Eric Schlosser’s book, “Command and Control” may be of interest to you. I found it hard to put down.
Daniel Ellsberg’s book, “The Doomsday Machine” might come closer to answering your question, but I have not read it.
It’s nearly impossible to mobilize a large force quickly, or covertly. There would be plenty of warning, especially if the US is involved because there’s an ocean in the way in either direction.
If Western nations decide to attack Russia, I doubt the conflict will stay limited to Russia.
- North Korea will probably support Russia militarily very quickly. They’re already supplying weapons, they have a close relationship, and they’re reasonably secure against counterattack because China would react very badly if NK were attacked directly.
- Iran will join with Russia, but uncertain whether Iran will actually deploy its military in Europe (probably not), or take the opportunity to pursue their own goals in the middle east while the west is distracted.
- China will probably play neutral for awhile, but continue to trade with Russia and sell them military equipment. China is circumspect, they won’t jump into a conflict for ideological reasons, though they’ll certainly quote ideological reasons in their propaganda. They will join the conflict when it benefits them and doesn’t present extreme risk. Most likely they will pursue their own goals in the south China sea (Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines) while the US is busy elsewhere.
An attack from the West on Russia will balloon into a global conflict. It will be bad for everyone, even if it stays limited to conventional warfare.
It will be bad for northern hemisphere *
Aside from the global environmental and economic fallout, I imagine many Southern Hemisphere countries would be dragged in as well.
I agree with your prediction of China’s behavior (and especially their motivations) 100%.
Russia is obliterated shortly followed by Russian nukes shortly followed by the end of humanity as a speicies.
the end of humanity as a speicies.
Now that would take at least some more months. And they are not exactly fun months.
Short answer: the end of the world.
The resultant nuclear war would kill a good portion of Earth’s population, but it’s likely far more would die from the chaos of civilisation being instantly forced back to the iron age by the EMP frying every silicon transistor.
For anyone interested in some light fiction on the subject, may I direct you to On the Beach by Neville Shute.
The film Threads is also relevant.
I used to be a Boy Scout. That just means I’ll die a bit slower.
The end of the northern hemisphere*
Do you like tablewear?
Because this would create a lot of glass in a few short moments.
Took me a sec to realize what you meant by this lol
I haven’t been paying to much attention to the news but I’ve heard that other, non-NATO, countries have threatened some of the countries that are just simply giving aid to Ukraine. So, I’d assume that they’d get involved in some way and just make things worse for everyone.
kinda depends on what china would do.
china is one of the only reasons russia is still standing on their feet. if china wanted, russia would be out of ukraine tomorrow.
nato vs china is ww3
Ukraine has no nuclear weapons. Nuclear arsenal is basically meant to face nato/USA in Russia.
Ukraine invading Russia is a humiliation. But it’s not a real threat for now. Russia didn’t even declared the state of war yet.
I’ve heard that Russia can’t really use atomic bomb against Ukraine because Ukraine has no atomic bombs itself. If it did, it would spark nuclear proliferation by breaking a tabou. And China wouldn’t allow that, because they don’t want Taiwan to get the bomb.
But nato is an atomic power. Thus, atomic bombs are fair game.
For starters: amassing troops at the russian is a warning.
But I think a coordinated attack by NATO could neutralize all russian air power, at least in the western part. Thus preventing Russia from waging war in Ukraine or making any attacks on NATO countries in return.
Nuclear war is not plausible due to Mutual Assured Destruction.
If your destruction is already inevitable because all of NATO is invading your country, then mutually assured destruction begins to look like a good option from the losing position.
For this reason I would argue nuclear war is plausible in the scenario.
You may also say “well the NATO forces may be looking to arrest you and not kill you so logically your best bet is to hold off on nukes”, but people, even leaders of countries, often don’t react rationally under extreme circumstances so there is definitely a non zero risk of nuclear destruction.
For more humorous (but still serious) answers try asking in [email protected]
I’ve never posted there, but damn I’m glad I found them. Highly recommended.
what are the likely outcomes?
Putin launches nukes, huge amount of civilians die, russian military is crushed within next few months. NATO wins at the cost of horrible loss of civilians killed by russian nukes. World economy shrinks considerably
So, this is the same analysis I read like a year ago. Do you feel that the current situation is not different enough now to indicate an alternate course of events?
I’m not who you asked, but I’ll answer anyway: no
Fair enough!
Do you feel that the current situation is not different enough
Putin has the exact same number of nukes and ICBMs as before. This is the main factor, and I don’t see it changing any time soon
