Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
It’s going to be a shit show.
Whoever wins…
We lose.
The one comment that unites both liberals and conservatives in their hatred of the left.
Both of you can GTFO with your negativity, imo.
This is like two stumbling drunk parents arguing over who’s better to drive everyone home and telling the kids “shut up you’re not helping!” when they suggest taking a cab.
I’m almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he’s improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I’m also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare “irregularities” that they need to investigate if they don’t like the way things are going.
I hope it will not be Florida of 2000 election all over again, but in a massive scale.
It’s insane, Gore won by several thousand votes, if not tens of thousands.
Yeah but Gores brother wasn’t governor of Florida! Who evers brother is governor wins, thems the rules.
Such a weird rule, but can’t disagree with the supreme court.
I’m off that week so I predict I’ll be pretty drunk regardless of the result
Harris by a landslide. I’m optimistic and am choosing to have faith in at least some of mankind.
Trump is power hungry while simultaneously old and simple minded. I remember Jan 6. I followed live feeds throughout and immediately after. I watched Trump’s speech, the riot it caused. I watched Ashli Babbitt die on some guy’s go pro.
I keep asking myself how in the hell Trump is even still in the running. What the fuck is wrong with his supporters?
Please get out and vote Harris! Harris is the way forward. She’s not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN. We need women in power. Look what men have done <gestures broadly>. She happens to be a good one, of course a politician, but she’s won my confidence. Over Trump it was an easy win.
Harris is the way forward. She’s not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN.
Yeah…
Asked whether there is anything she would have done differently than Biden over the past four years, Harris demurred.
“There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact,”
“You asked me what is the difference between Joe Biden and me — that will be one of the differences. I’m going to have a Republican in my Cabinet,”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/harris-biden-the-view-00182883
She’s going to lose. Not because people love Trump (though many do unfortunately) but because she refuses to seperate herself from the old man actively commiting genocide and herself leans to the right trying to pick up Trump supporters on issues like immigration, when they will never switch and she just disillusions people who care about those issues in the left.
Edit: forgot to source quote
I think she will win but I don’t think it will be a landslide. I hope so, but there’s a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.
a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.
True. Unarguably.
Counterpoint though: There are a bunch of Americans that do not. I know many. I know Republicans that are voting Harris.
Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.
Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.
Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there’s going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don’t expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.
Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn’t have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.
Ez Harris W
Whoever wins … the country will fight about the result for the next four years and completely obscure any reasonable debate or conversation about anything of importance like inflation, wealth inequality, war, the military industrial complex or creeping fascism.
If America doesn’t get its act together during this election … it’s just taking another step towards becoming a failed state and will break apart within the next decade or two. But it won’t be a war or anything too dramatic … it will just look and sound like a never slapfest between shouting children and crying babies who threaten each other but never actually do anything except leave the room with all their toys.
Global thermonuclear war.
Would you like to play a game?
Don’t make me hope.
Love a War Games reference.
Harris wins comfortably. Lots of lawsuits. Even more violence.
Civil war, because Trump won’t accept the result and Musk will be fueling the hate.
The material conditions aren’t ripe for a civil war just yet, nor for a revolution. Things have not gotten dire for the US Empire abroad just yet.
I think we’ll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.
According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we’re still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn’t on the ballot are more accurate. :(
Aside from that I think it is much more likely we end up with a Republican Senate. From what I understand this cycle is very unfavorable to us in that regard. A lot of Dems defending and less Republicans that can actually lose defending.
It’s certainly possible. The polls are showing it’s effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don’t have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.
I’ve been reading some discussions this week about fake polls claiming Republicans are winning to make Dems think there’s no point in voting. Apparently it was a technique used in a previous recent election? It would explain all the results I’ve seen in the last few days showing them with a strong lead, where a week or two ago other polls showed an even race. Doesn’t really matter though, everyone should remember that the only thing that counts is getting out and casting your vote no matter what the polls might suggest.
There have been a lot of Republican polls posted, part of their “flood the zone” strategy. But I think even the nonpartisan polls are underestimating Dem support a bit.
2016 election night again. Kamala has more votes, loses electoral college
I’m in a swing state with an abortion measure on the ballot, and while all the polls claim it’s close, I’m not really sure they are properly accounting for the number of voters that have been activated by the possibility of enshrining pro-choice into the state constitution.
These polling strategies are complex and a lot of thought goes into them, but they rarely can account for uncommon circumstances that increase voter turnout in local or state elections and how that will effect the national election.
While this is entirely personal reexperience bias, I also wonder how effective these polls are at reaching a representative survey group. I know at least on my phone basically all survey calls and texts go to spam and I wonder if older, more conservative voters are getting overrepresented due to their likelihood of not having those kinds of spam filters in place.
Polsters do not call random people. They will call as many people under 30 as they have to to get a representative sample. They have quotas for different parties, age groups, races, etc. And purposefully target the ones they want and verify with the person that demographic info is right while doing the questions. Atleast good scientific polls will do this. Not all polls are created equal.
