Now? Biden has been losing in swing state polls since January. The debate was supposed to move the needle in his direction. That’s why all this talk about “oh his debate performance didn’t affect his polling” is so infuriating.
Correct. It didn’t move the needle. He’s still losing. He needs to go.
Hey man, at least he gave it his all.
If you try your goodest.
Great, more inaccurate polling with which to irrelevantly inform netizens
Anyone know about the reputation/reliability of yougov?
So… 2.9 stars
out of 3
How reliable is fivethirtyeight after Nate Silver left? Is there any consensus?
I think the consensus is generally that it’s better data analysis but most of the journalistic team is gone. Still plenty of solid stuff. I would say it’s probably competitive with a couple of other similarly lightweight models and teams/individuals. Nate Silver’s kind of gone off the deep end since he least.
Interesting, thanks. I’ll miss the journalistic aspect.
Aren’t there enough communities about politics?
There’s not even a joke here, can’t you just post it to a political community?
Can’t wait for this People Twitter to devolve into what happened to White People Twitter, and Black People Twitter on Reddit…From subreddits that consistently gave me a belly ache from laughing so hard, to non stop identity politics chasing the current trends from never ending news cycles.
Maybe i’ve missed the point of the community but to me it seems fair to post here?
r/whitepeopletwitter was originally created as a response to r/blackpeopletwitter, which initially focused on people posting tweets from black people, focused on issues and opinions unique to or emblematic of the lived experience and concerns of the black community.
This began to devolve into a good deal of posts highlighting negative stereotypes about black people and r/whitepeopletwitter was founded basically tongue-in-cheek, with many posts highlighting ‘white people problems’ type posts, ie, to show the kind of disconnect many online white people have due basically to their much greater likelihood to be financially secure, their much lower likelihood to deal with significant violence, police brutality, discrimination, etc.
That was all nearly a decade ago and now here on reddit and lemmy that plot has basically been lost entirely, with the current ruleset this may as well just be named /twitterpeople or even /twitter.
Again, the original idea was to kind of showcase or lampoon twitter posts from white people that show they are significantly privileged and isolated, out of touch, that sort of thing.
Not ideal.
It seems reasonable that Trump would get a boost in polls from surviving being shot/ nicked on his ear. My hope is that this is a transient effect, and that Trump will say and/or do many stupid things between now and November that will trash his chances at being elected dictator.
Honestly?
Biden had a huge bump. Last I had heard was 34%, but when looking for these polls I saw he was at 41%?
7% is already huge a net gain, but percentage wise it’s like a 20% gain.
I’m not quite sure what you are asking, or where you are sourcing that polling data. Could you elaborate?
Yougov’s website.
The polls in OPs post are from yougov but I didn’t see anything about battlegrounds, saw a rare good thing for Biden, and felt the need to mention.
trump almost getting merc’d might have helped trump, but it seems to have helped Biden even more.
Which sounds like it’s just reinforcing people’s beliefs, and since we are talking about political violence that’s not always a good thing
Honestly?
I’m not quite sure what you are asking
Rhetorical device, I could have said “Bruh…”. “Actually”. “Meh”. Or a bunch of other shit
I was just surprised to see it, and honestly seemed to fit best with surprise
Survived an assassination? That’s cool I guess.
He’s still a child rapist.
He’s still a felon.
He’s still a traitor to the US.
He still won’t take responsibility for things he is responsible for and claims responsibility for things he has nothing to do with.
I still wouldn’t trust him to do any job whatsoever unless that job was to sound like a complete fucking idiot anytime he opened his mouth because he is really fucking good at that.
Polls are absolutely useless
It’s xitter, can we confirm those are the actual stats and not someone falsely claiming they come from yougov
The source for the poll is on this tweet: https://x.com/GarrettHerrin/status/1812895805331632386
Thats before you account for historic over/ under performance.
Subtract 4 from Bidens numbers and add 8 to Trumps for a more accurate view of real world performance.
How can there be a historic performance when they have only faced each other once before and there are so many variables to account for?
If you want to understand this, I recommend starting from the beginning: link
My point is that you can’t compare the two elections because they are far from identical
Well its not really a point worth addressing because in the act of you making it, you reveal yourself to not know at all what the fuck you are talking about.
By making that point, you out yourself as someone who should be ignored on the matter.
Looks like the datasets consist of every poll from October and November. Would love to see a time axis.
Yes, thats correct. I took the average of the polls, by state, for the previous 30 days prior to the date of the election. So not quite the beginning of October 2020.
Eh, all polls do is try to assume that trends remain the same. I remember when Hilary was favored so heavily to win
Voter apathy and turnout is the main issue, get people to the polls to vote.
If they think it’s already done or there’s already a winner, then that’s just giving into propaganda.
Tbh, we don’t know if the polls could be cooked, there are a lot of shenanigans happening everywhere this election season
Hilary was kicking ass in the polls back in 2016 too. I feel better seeing the rapist with 34 felonies up in the polls, it will inspire more Democrats to vote and when Democrats vote, they win.
VOTE, volunteer to give rides for people that can’t make it to vote otherwise.
Hilary was kicking ass in the polls back in 2016 too. I feel better seeing the rapist with 34 felonies up in the polls, it will inspire more Democrats to vote and when Democrats vote, they win.
- Said some idiot, probably.
Ahh, here you go buddy, I put a source in there for ya, let me know if you need help reading it.
I swear to fuck, did the neo-liberals of lemmy all eat the same pork dumplings that RFK Jr ate?
You all have a level of reasoning reflective of someone with brain worms.
Biden being down in the polls is a straight up fucking disaster. There is no other interpretation. Being glad that Trump is up on Biden in the polling?
And then its like… you see it every where here. Its an entire cohort of idiots who have gaslit themselves into complete delusion about reality. And then it makes sense that you might actually think what you said.
Ok buddy, you seem a little hostile, do you need a nap? A snack? Maybe a walk outside would help you out. Either way, I’m not worried at all about a racist rapist with 34 felonies winning an election he shouldn’t be in. People will vote for democracy since it’s clearly on the line, the turd will be flushed and democracy will prevail. Think different? Come talk to me in November when the stain on America gets beat worse than last time.
I wish I could bottle your optimism and boof it like a future supreme court justice buddy.
Unfortunately, I have to live in reality and have a commitment to making my decisions based on facts, data, and reason.
Its a commitment I deeply regret making.
Judging by your post history, doubt.
I’m right and the data backs me up.
The people who still believe that Biden is still going to win are confusing their wishes for reality.
Idk I guess I have too much faith in people to not vote for a felon, rapist, pedophile, racist, fascist, narcissistic, man-child who has a third grade education over a dude who is just slightly older than that piece of shit.
Just because a piece of shit got shot at, doesn’t make all his glaring issues go away.
At some point, you’re going to realize that your faith is badly misplaced. It’s just a few thousand degenerates in the swing states who will usher in the end of the Republic.
And at some point you’re going to realize it’s arguments like that which made the commenter’s faith misplaced.
My expectation is that the polls are incorrect, and my hope is the reporting that Trump is ahead will drive anti-trump voters to turn out.
With that many undecideds, I’m not sure what you can learn from this.
It was for spamming. The news and articles weren’t wrong it was just too much at once.
Liar. You’re were banned for openly admitting your agenda.
It was “due to their admitting, in a public comment, that their engagement here is in bad faith.” The frequency was a factor but by no means the proximate reason for the ban.
I don’t really agree with that being the metric, but that was what it was for.
It was a bad faith ban. Should never have happened.
