CTV News also made the same call.
Majority or minority gov tbd
Mark Carney and his wife Diana Fox Carney take in the results in Ottawa. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
Why did SW ON go conservative? Is that normal?
Rural Ontario always votes conservative.
Anyone listen to PP’s speech? How is bro still saying he’ll stay on as leader after pulling an Atlanta Falcons
Also, this election proved to me that the Quebec hate is so forced. Push comes to shove they know what elbows up means, unlike Alberta and Sask.
We’ll vote BQ in safe elections because minority governments that have to form coalitions is a good counterbalance to FPTP. But in contentious ones, we’ll go for the more logical votes. My riding was BQ for the last 2 elections but it was a close race between the libs and cpp
polymarket knew this months ago, just saying
“Knew”
yeah, its a prediction market, and when there’s millions of dollars on both sides, its really accurate
Fair, but call it what it is: a prediction
ok. btw it doesn’t say it precisely, it gives a percentage.
Right, it’s admittedly pedantic, but they know better than to say they “know”.
Interesting situation right now at about midnight. 172 needed for a majority, projections say they’ll be about 10 short. NDP is projected to get about 10 seats, which might not be enough to bring a Liberal/NDP coalition up to 172. Greens are down to 1 seat, leaving only Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois.
What happens if the Liberals and Conservatives (and Green) can’t form a coalition to hit 172. Would the Liberals actually make a coalition with the Bloc Quebecois? What could they agree on? What would the Bloc demand?
A coalition is not the same as a minority government, there has only ever been 2 canadian coalitions. It’s pretty unlikely that will happen.
I think a minority supported by BQ will be good for the environment, significant tightening on immigration, probably liberal agenda otherwise. the BQ is much more closely aligned with Libs than CPC, as I think Blanchet made clear in the english debate. A LIB+NDP+Green isn’t totally out of the question right now, probably also good for the environment.
The NDP is set to lose official party status. Do you think any of them will cross the floor to the Libs?
I just hope that this time the small parties can push to get rid of FPTP. This election would have looked so different with any other form of voting.
Thanks God that my riding is no bellwether
lmfao such a conservative stronghold here.
Now just fingers cross Elizabeth May keeps her seat, we must have at least one green seat
Looking like she’s doing well enough to be on the projected board, hope she can keep it up.
She won.
Fuck yeah I love living in this riding
Mike Morrice is also still in the fight.
The vote split is maddening, this should not be a Conservative vs Green race.
Windsor is a union town but the vote split was brutal.
No worries, queen Liz was always the leader in our riding, she is very personable and genuine and the constituency support is non-partisan, so she kept her seat with a good margin.
I really thought that 51st state of the US push at the end there would save conservatives. Everyone knows how badly Canadians want to lose their independence, culture, healthcare, etc.
Seriously though, the next government should probably start planning for the refugee camps it’ll need on the southern border in the coming years. Or maybe build a wall.
Weirdly optimistic scenario where there are refugees but they decide not to follow through on their Greenland and 51st state threats.
If the US is going to follow through on the threats then they better do it quickly. It won’t be too long before Trump has the US armed forces functioning about as well as Russia’s.
The threats of various US invasions being 100% senile blustering, coupled with an economic crisis and/or loss of freedom in the US to the point that people would need to flee the country rapidly, isn’t that far-fetched.
if it came down to a war between the US and Canada, i wouldn’t be betting on the US
1am (EST) and 1 of the 3 major party leaders has lost his seat (Singh). Bruce Fanjoy (LIB) has a 2500 vote lead over Poilievre in Carleton with 68% of the votes counted, so it’s looking fairly likely he’ll lose too.
I wonder if there has ever been an election where this many parties have changed leaders in such a short span of time. First Trudeau stepping down, then the NDP and Cons both having their leaders lose their seats. The only party leaders who survived the election and kept their seats are Elizabeth May and Yves-François Blanchet.
We needed this badly. It was clear that a few months ago we had no leader that Canadians were happy with.
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Awesome!
Still troubling to know how many of my countrymen are conservative filth though.
Been interesting to watch the seats swinging, it’s going to definitely be close all night.
I’m curious how Polievre will do in his own riding, he is against a liberal Bruce Fanjoy who has actually done pretty well for himself and the early voting was counted first in that riding which had Bruce up a few votes so it’ll be a matter of time to see how it actually goes since the early vote was said to be largely Liberal supporters.
We’re gonna lose our little PP in Ottawa.
Can you imagine if, at 45 he has to make a resume and try to find a job for the first time?
Unless the knives come out for him as leader, a newly elected MP in a nice, safe western riding will likely step down and trigger a by-election for PP to carpetbag his way in. It still isn’t official yet, but is still looking very much like a bunch of federal public servants in his riding didn’t trust him not to sack them.
What’s funny is that the way things are going the Bloc might be the only party willing to work with the Liberals AND that will have enough seats to hold the balance of power. I wonder if we might see the CPC split in two so the progressives can work with the Liberals…
That would be welcome. After they rejected O’Toole and went for Poilievre it looked like we had lost the rational right.
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Seems early, but they usually have a pretty good reason to call things when they do.
I’m cautiously optimistic as well.
polymarkets got the odds at ~75-80% of the liberals wining
Huge sigh of relief
I hate how much of my mental well being was hinging on this.
Now, imagine if the election went the other way when you wake up, and you’ll get the full American experience…
Congrats though. The last thing the world needs is more trump clones/wannabe dictators.
It may not have been as bombastic, but any scientist living through the Harper governments DID get the American experience. We are trying to recover from that scientific crippling to this day.
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Interesting, i’d have thought housing/cost of living would’ve been on a list like that. I thought it was a fairly big issue going into the Canadian election?
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Electoral reform is the biggest issue we need to tackle. Without proportional representation, Canada will continue its rightward march to polarizing American style politics.
We need to keep fighting to make the Liberals and NDP choose Canada over party.
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First past the post tends to produce adversarial politics, whereas proportional representation trends to produce collaborative politics.
Canada used to be better about that because we had more minority governments, but things have been moving closer to American style two party.
I completely agree that the divisiveness at a community level is also a problem, but electoral reform is a concrete thing we can advocate for that will improve this.
The majority of Canadians support proportional representation, so the barrier is getting politicians to put down short sighted self interest.
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Congrats, Canada! Don’t ever let this brain disease that has destroyed our country overtake you.
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I mean duh? Did anyone think otherwise?
You remain optimistic in 2025?
After PP’s horrible showing post-Trump (and dozens of polls)? Yeah. Canada is the Western country with the best odds of remaining a democracy in 20 years, followed not so closely by Eastern Europe and Australia.
