It would likely look like versions of the three most popular forms of Linux today, Android, ChromeOS, and Steam Deck.

Very likely, it would be developed to host a vendor’s app store as a way to make money. Depending on the company, it would likely give admin access to users based on corporate preferences similar to how Android phone sellers lock or unlock parts of the phone. You can still install your own Linux to some computers, but that market would likely remain the same size it is today.

I also see some companies with a business model like Stripe deploy specialized Linux computers to businesses designed to deployable to large companies and have a longer lifecycle than a Windows OS. With payment of these computers likely done on a material + maintenance program, updates to these computers would likely focus on security and uptime only. Some individual large companies may even have their own flavor of Linux, like a hotel chain deploying terminals across corporate and franchise hotels and tied to corporate servers.

Probably will be most notable for personal desktops with increased software support of consumer hardware. Mainstream only cares about what OS is pre installed, linux users are 99,9% advanced users just by the fact that they take the time to install an OS. Company adoption have the same issue, companies use what have worked before and what most employees are used to… and of course, what is pre installed on the desktops they buy.

Desktop linux is unlikely to happen at any point, just by the above facts. I am also not convinced it is the first choice for most tasks on a desktop. Servers and mobile it works great and other LTS hardware. With that said, I think when governments adopt linux we will definitely see an actual market and ecosystem develop… 2030? Maybe before, because countries will wake up and release its not the best idea to share all their data with MS. I could see something like Trump becoming president again, could actually spur on the adoption rate.

Sorry for the ramble, interesting question 👍

Android

How would the mainstream view it?

Mostly postive, there can be some complaints about being hard to use etc

How would software support improve?
How would gaming look like?

More apps and games might come and many companies might consider it.

Which country will become the first majority >Linux majority? India? Seychelles?

Prob some third world country

How many local governments would start >adopting it?

Idk

What year do you think it will happen in?

Prob around late 2020s

Simplified and with a lot of user power and user freedom abdicated to a few companies, or to a few groups of developers working together, in order to make things much simpler and much more optimised for the average user.

I mean, suffice to see how often people can be completely lost when they’re asked to decide between clicking either the OK or the Cancel button, or use a simple drop down menu, or decide if they should even be bothered with their privacy at all when using any app as long as it is free and shiny… As it is, Linux stands no-chance against that with its many quirks, workarounds, with its sudo pacman -s or sudo apt install, and with its focus on freedom and privacy. No matter how excellent those tools can be, and no matter how important freedom and privacy should be.

• Better app compatibility
• More bugs fixed and features added
• Less e-Waste
• More open source projects
• People possibly valuing privacy more
• Games start to drop kernel anti cheats

At 10% the deep sleeper code hidden in every installation activates and initiates the singularity protocol where the sentient machine scrapes and scrubs all code ever written to publish on the open web under an exclusive GPLvFINAL license that legally prohibits all humanity from denying freedoms ever again.

10% of what market? It already has more than that in the server and embedded markets. In the desktop market, that will never happen. It’s just not user friendly enough and probably never will be.

How would the mainstream view it?

A hip cool new thing that they’re just knowing. Probably intimidated too.

How would software support improve?

Borrowing ideas from already successful ways of supporting software done in other fields.

How would gaming look like?

Probably a huge deal breaker for some. If they know they can’t run 100% of the games they acquire on an OS, then that’s it.

Which country will become the first Linux majority? India? Seychelles?

India. It’s projected to grow at 25.2%

How many local governments would start adopting it?

Not many.

What year do you think it will happen in?

If it took Linux 3 decades to finally get to even 2%, I’m betting it’ll take another 3 decades or longer.

How would software support improve?

• Less fragmentation between multiple different ways to install software (Ubuntu-derived distributions currently have apt, flatpack and snap while some software is available in neither so I have to manually download a binary or even compile it myself)
• Better support for certain use cases like… I don’t know… fractional scaling which Windows has supported since Vista
• Simplified system settings. People make fun of Windows splitting settings between the “new” settings app and the old control center. On most Linux distributions, I may have to set some things multiple times for my window manager, my compositor and so on… again, scaling is the main culprit here but themeing has similar problems.

Basically fix the few things that work better in Windows, even for power users, ideally without sacrificing the flexibility that makes Linux so awesome.

You’ll see a lot more CVEs.

1. how would it look
2. what would it look like

Pick a lane.