Nintendo has moved over 140 million Switch consoles. The Switch 2 might become more, or less successful, but let’s just conservatively assume they’ll only sell half as many this time around.
Last time I checked, the entire Deck-like category amounted to some seven-digit number of sold devices. The idea that anyone targeting that level of performance is going to skip the Switch 2… is wildly unrealistic.
The Switch catalog was limited in no small part because the device just couldn’t give acceptable performance for a lot of contemporary cross-platform games. That, of course, didn’t matter for first-party titles.
Switch 2 performance is projected to end up somewhere around a base PS4, with better GPU but somewhat diminished CPU. However, it’s going to have more memory than the Xbox Series S that teams had trouble porting their games to.
The Switch 2 might benefit a lot from this generation’s extended cross-gen period. Add that to franchises like Fire Emblem, Metroid, Mario, Mario Kart, Pikmin and Zelda, and the average consumer is going to think of Steam as the “limited” platform.
A lot of conjecture, and maybe Switch 2 will turn out to be a monumental flop. I’m cautiously optimistic.
By the way, the old, selective policy that Nintendo exercised is pretty much a thing of the past. Just browse through the eShop for three minutes.