The jobs report doesn’t mean a whole lot when it comes to whether we’re in a recession. Unemployment and the maker are correlated, but the former doesn’t cause the latter, rather the inverse.
While I agree a recession is likely, I think it’s because of tariffs and the ensuing response from our trade partners, not cutting federal jobs.
I have some serious concerns about that guys credentials if he thinks unemployment causes recessions…
True, I think (hope) OP meant that a poor jobs report portends a deep recession.
US GDP for all of 2024 is positive, but consumer sentiment isn’t getting any better any time soon. Add in talk of a shutdown in March, and the market might take this and the weekly on-again-off-again tariff BS as uncertainty best avoided and get all bearish. Meaning more job losses in the private sector, etc.
I’m personally ready to hunker down for a full on 2008-style recession.
It sounds like they’re saying the jobs report will be bad because of the workforce reduction the government reduction. A monthly jobs report is usually around 100-150k jobs added, so a 200k reduction would put that in the negatives.
The jobs report is only useful as a trend, and even then only in concert with other data. The OP really needs to clarify what they mean, because this sounds completely uninformed as to what the jobs report means and how it’s used.
The jobs report doesn’t mean a whole lot when it comes to whether we’re in a recession. Unemployment and the maker are correlated, but the former doesn’t cause the latter, rather the inverse.
While I agree a recession is likely, I think it’s because of tariffs and the ensuing response from our trade partners, not cutting federal jobs.
I have some serious concerns about that guys credentials if he thinks unemployment causes recessions…
True, I think (hope) OP meant that a poor jobs report portends a deep recession.
US GDP for all of 2024 is positive, but consumer sentiment isn’t getting any better any time soon. Add in talk of a shutdown in March, and the market might take this and the weekly on-again-off-again tariff BS as uncertainty best avoided and get all bearish. Meaning more job losses in the private sector, etc.
I’m personally ready to hunker down for a full on 2008-style recession.
It sounds like they’re saying the jobs report will be bad because of the workforce reduction the government reduction. A monthly jobs report is usually around 100-150k jobs added, so a 200k reduction would put that in the negatives.
The jobs report is only useful as a trend, and even then only in concert with other data. The OP really needs to clarify what they mean, because this sounds completely uninformed as to what the jobs report means and how it’s used.