Every great business idea needs luck too. You just never hear of other incredibly great ideas that just had none. You can’t just calculate success and have it guaranteed. You need money (for marketing at least), a great or even mediocre idea and luck. And be it just the luck of doing it at the right time.

You can write the best book the world ever saw, but it’s worth nothing if you don’t get lucky the right person (with influence/reach) reads it at the right time and happens to like it. Otherwise you would have to persistently throw money at it for an indeterminate time. And the longer that is the less profit is ever to be made. See epic games…

But if you think luck is irrelevant, suit yourself.