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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • Nah this is just whataboutism. We all agree that the highest severity issues are access to heathcare/nutrition/sanitation/education in developing countries or among the homeless etc. That doesn’t mean we are suddenly not allowed to talk about anything else.

    Do you do this in real life?

    Colleague: “hey did you catch the game this weekend, boy I hate being a jets fan”

    Blarghly: “that’s rather gauche, don’t you know there’s major food insecurity in sudan”

    It has the intellectual weight of a parent trying to cajole their toddler into eating.





  • Some of your examples of harmony involve fourth wall breaking, which is interesting because I had always thought of the harmony between game and story as about immersion You’re right though, being seen as a player for what you are trying to do is the essence of harmony. That is if you’re trying to immerse, being wrenched out of it is bad, but if you’re taking the piss, the world should take the piss right back. Hard for a game to do both, but I had vivid memories or baldurs gate 1+2 characters talking to their “omnipreseent authority figure” that walked that line perfectly.




  • Doesn’t sound particularly progressive. 87g of gold is like $10k and it’s a flat rate. Empirically there are plenty of Muslim billionaires anyway, so it ain’t working. Would be interesting to tot up billionaires per capita by religion but I don’t think it would be particularly meaningful because the US skews everything, and how “practicing” someone is of their religion is impossible to measure.










  • Still confused why you continue to emphasise estimate when ADP is also an estimate.

    I already emphasised the difficulty of real time stats, revisions are not shocking, but perfectly normal. I don’t think anyone is that surprised (though we can agree that there are a lot of overconfident and less statistically literate professionals), the gulf between hard data and sentiment/alternative data (vibecession and so forth) was well covered and had to resolve one way or another.

    ADP was +104k in July, so by your previous logic we should expect upwards revisions in the BLS July number as the year goes on right?



  • What are you talking about? They’re both estimates extrapolated from samples. I think most statisticians would prefer stratified sampling over one company’s payrolls processing, but whatever. Maybe chuds would argue that ADP is so much more efficient/accurate because it’s outside of the “swamp” of govt, it’s certainly an independent data point. I mean I agree with you in that BLS is not reliable either. Real time economics is hard.

    If you honestly preferred ADP all along and will continue to espouse it’s superiority when it next contradicts your view rather than confirming it (as it will because data are noisy) then more power to you.