• 3 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: August 9th, 2023

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  • China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.

    It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.


  • Eeeeehhh, if you just look at numbers of boats, yes. The US Navy has far, far more experience, though. Drones are also going to change the game in ways we’re only starting to see with the Ukraine War. With that, the answer might be “everyone’s boats are sunk now”.

    China probably couldn’t gain air superiority over Taiwan, and without that, an invasion will fail. That will be true even if the US ends up losing more boats.



  • Discovery Zone, man. I actually feel bad for the kids that never got to experience Discovery Zone. Lasted for like 2 years. It apparently failed because they had a mountain of debt (all those plastic tubes are capital intensive buildouts) and adults had to sit around while their kids played.

    I feel like if you made it work like a gym membership for your kids, and had something for adults to do off to the side, you might be able to make the numbers work.













  • Yeah, those are mostly showing off. They’re not really what I’m getting at, either. I more want to challenge people to make useful things simply.

    And yes, there are ways that JavaScript can be used to give users a faster and more streamlined experience. The web as it stands is so far past that justification. I swear there’s lots of “full stack” devs that haven’t a clue how to make a site without React.


  • Ukraine had nukes and gave them up. They were invaded.

    Iraq gave up their WMD program after the first Gulf War. They were invaded again.

    Iran definitely had a nuclear program, but doesn’t appear to be pursuing it anymore. They’re getting attacked and quite possibly will get invaded.

    South Africa had a nuclear program and gave it up. Left alone.

    The Great Powers, particularly the United States but also Russia, have shown that your country should just keep going once you start. Chances are, you’ll get invaded, anyway.

    This is not the way towards anti-proliferation.