• 2 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • In theory, geoengineering should slow down the rate of warming while we transition away from fossil fuels. Since the transition to a zero GHG emission global civilization will inherently take more time than we have, to prevent warming beyond 2.0C, we could use geoengineering to buy us some time. In theory, it makes perfect sense, but I am leery. I’m concerned about potential unintended consequences and side effects, but I’m even more concerned that geoengineering will make people complacent, slowing down the transition. Even theoretically, geoengineering only works if we are rapidly transitioning at the same time, otherwise it’s just like throwing more and more dynamite onto a pile, and all it would take is for us to stop geoengineering, for whatever reason, for the dynamite to explode.


  • Consumption of world’s wealthiest people also making it increasingly difficult to limit global heating to 1.5C

    We’re not going to achieve the 1.5C target. It’s just not going to happen. Yes, it might (might!) still be physically possible to limit warming to 1.5C, but it’s not economically, politically, or socially possible. The only way we could achieve 1.5C at this point would be if there was some major economic collapse or some other major crisis. There’s no real way we can reduce GHG emissions at the rate necessary to achieve 1.5C while the global population, global economy, and average per person consumption rates continue to grow at their current pace. Some might say it is theoretically possible, but I don’t really care if it is. We’re not looking for theoretical solutions, we’re looking for actual solutions, and I think the actual solutions get us somewhere between 2.5C and 3C.








  • An AMOC collapse “is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid,”

    Hmm, that seems quite alarmist to me. It’s probably a hoax, but even if it isn’t, the effects are likely being over blown. An AMOC collapse would only cause a slight drop in GDP, a couple percentage points only, and it’s probably already priced in on stock markets. I also believe in the power of entrepreneurship to find solutions. I’ve got it! We dump a whole heck of a lot of salt into the ocean. Boom! I’ll head the start-up. We’ll just get our capital from investors like Black Rock and Bill Gates. Oh, and governments, of course. We’ll get governments to pay us to drive massive, diesel powered cargo ships, loaded with salt, out to the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. See, market solutions. Oh man, ecological collapse is going to generate so much profit and shareholder value. Take that, doomers. /s




  • The demand exists because there is machinery all around the world that was designed to run on fuels derived from fossil hydrocarbons. To eliminate the demand, all of that machinery must be replaced with alternatives that do not run on fossil fuels.

    Some of that machinery exists and is available on the market today, although some of it is still prohibitively expensive for many, and not all of the newer machines have all the necessary supporting infrastructure. Much more needs to be done by governments to make non fossil fuel machinery accessible and affordable, and to rapidly build out the necessary infrastructure.

    Some of the existing machinery does not yet have a non fossil fuel alternative available. For that machinery, fossil fuels are still necessary. Once again, governments must do more, to help speed up R&D on new technologies, and to make sure those technologies will be affordable and accessible once they are ready for market deployment, and, again, that all the necessary supporting infrastructure is in place.



  • I’ve been thinking about it, and I think I understand why many people have such strong reactions to the situation. Russia did illegally invade a sovereign nation, without provocation. They have killed thousands of innocent people and they have done incredible harm. It’s abhorrent. Any such unjustified invasion (like the US invasion is Iraq, for instance) is abhorrent. I suppose some people view my attempts to dispassionately look for peaceful solutions to the conflict as a kind of tacit support for Russia, or at least indifference. I am not indifferent, and I certainly don’t support their illegal and immoral actions, I just don’t want anything that could lead to more war, or more widespread war. However, as you’ve said, Russia has likely left the rest of the world with few other choices.