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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.workstoScience Memes@mander.xyzToo soon?
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    2 days ago

    They apparently decided not to secure the roof that the assassin ended up shooting from because it was sloped and so they were afraid.

    I’m not making that up.

    “That building in particular has a sloped roof, at its highest point. And so, there’s a safety factor that would be considered there that we wouldn’t want to put somebody up on a sloped roof. And so, the decision was made to secure the building, from inside,” [U.S. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle] said.

    She’s also trying to throw the local cops under the bus.

    “In this particular instance, we did share support for that particular site and that the Secret Service was responsible for the inner perimeter,” Cheatle said. “And then we sought assistance from our local counterparts for the outer perimeter. There was local police in that building – there was local police in the area that were responsible for the outer perimeter of the building.”








  • The scenario you describe has already come to pass. Russia has NATO on their doorstep since Finland joined, Russia’s chances of breaking through the Ukrainian army and actually capturing that agricultural land are rather low even if Western support for Ukraine drops significantly, and Ukraine is going to be friendly to the West and hostile to Russia even if it isn’t allowed into NATO. If this scenario is intolerable to Russia, then whatever would happen is going to happen.

    I do think there is a small but significant risk that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (a scenario where both escalating and not escalating are likely to be disastrous) if its army is driven back to the border but not if the war becomes a frozen conflict with Russia controlling the territory it currently does. With that said, I disagree that shows of strength don’t deter. Western strength deterred a Soviet invasion of Europe, and it deters a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. There definitely is a risk of escalation, but there always will be. The USA has tried being isolationist before, but it was still drawn into both world wars. It will be drawn into the next one if such a war happens.


  • I think it’s the other way around: Russia is aggressive but a show of strength would deter it. In other words, Russia isn’t desperate to avoid a confrontation with the West. Russia wants a confrontation with the West, and it needs to know that that’s a confrontation it won’t win. (China also needs to know that, and it’s watching the situation in Ukraine closely.)

    That’s not to say that we should seek out such a confrontation with the goal of intimidating Russia. A high-stakes situation like that does have the risk of escalating out of control. However, the situation in Ukraine is already such a confrontation, initiated by Russia due to its belief that the West is weak. It would have been much better to avoid creating such a belief, but now is too late for that. The best we can do is to avoid reinforcing it and, from a pragmatic perspective, it helps that most of the risk is borne by Ukraine.

    In short, the nightmare scenario is Russia invading a NATO country like one of the Baltic states. Then either there is a war between nuclear powers immediately or Western unity collapses and a war between nuclear powers becomes much more likely in the near future. Our best chance of avoiding that is to stop Russia in Ukraine, where we can do so indirectly.

    Edit: Also people shouldn’t be down-voting you. You’re making a valid point that needs to be addressed.


  • A thought experiment: you operate a security camera on behalf of a property owner. The camera records a serious crime taking place. The police want to see the video, but they can’t force you to give it to them. The property owner doesn’t want the police to see the video, but he can’t force you not to give it to them. (However, he can stop being a customer, which will cost you money.) What would you do?

    I think I’d give the police the video as long as I thought the crime was serious. And I’d do that even if it cost me money, because IMO it’s the right thing to do. I’m not saying Amazon was in that position, but I would have to know the specific circumstances before I could judge.


  • The problem with high wealth taxes is the same as the problem with nationalizing privately-owned businesses. Even if you’re not worried about the people you tax fleeing the country (maybe they can’t because their investments aren’t mobile) you still have to worry about the fact that no one would build anything in France (even things not currently taxed) if there was good reason to think that France might suddenly decide to seize a large fraction of its value.

    (High income taxes aren’t as big a deal because wealthy people can restructure their investments in order to avoid most of them, but I wonder whether the lost economic activity is actually worth more to the country than the money raised by the tax.)





  • Is it a little beep or a constant alarm? I can’t imagine that many drivers would tolerate having a constant alarm.

    I’m in the USA and my impression here is that currently safety advocates are happy to set very low speed limits, drivers are happy to ignore those speed limits, and so everything works out. If speed limits were actually consistently enforced, I imagine there would be a lot of push-back against the politicians responsible.

    We need to breed a new generation of drivers who find driving in a more relaxed manner can be just as rewarding.

    I don’t see that happening.