“Peak oil” has been predicted for decades, and they just keep finding more and more oil.
I’ll raise one point on this. Peak Oil isn’t just a question of the gross quantity of existing oil, its about the cost of extracting a new barrel relative to the demand for that barrel. It is possible we can reach a moment in history when the value-add of a burning a gallon of light sweet crude is lower than the cost to extract it. We’ve already functionally passed that point for coal (which is why we’ve basically given up mining it, despite enormous reserves continuing to exist).
The BP Horizon spill is a great example of the consequences of “Peak Oil” as a practical concern. The Horizon rig was only economically viable because of the triple-digit price on oil, going into the late '00s. It was a largely experimental construction, given the offshore depth of the extraction with costs to match, signaling a depletion of “safer” inland wells. And the liabilities it generated (both directly from the spill and indirectly from political reforms instated afterwards and insurance demanded for future rigs) dwarfed the revenue it produced.
There’s still oil in the well Horizon had drilled and we could still conceivably build another rig to go back and keep mining it. But we won’t, because the costs exceed the expected revenues. If we ever see $200-300 bbl gasoline, a business might have the monetary incentive to return. But if wind/solar/nuclear become a cost-efficient replacement, there will never been an economic incentive to rebuild on that patch. We will have passed the point at which oil extraction makes financial sense.
I’ll raise one point on this. Peak Oil isn’t just a question of the gross quantity of existing oil, its about the cost of extracting a new barrel relative to the demand for that barrel. It is possible we can reach a moment in history when the value-add of a burning a gallon of light sweet crude is lower than the cost to extract it. We’ve already functionally passed that point for coal (which is why we’ve basically given up mining it, despite enormous reserves continuing to exist).
The BP Horizon spill is a great example of the consequences of “Peak Oil” as a practical concern. The Horizon rig was only economically viable because of the triple-digit price on oil, going into the late '00s. It was a largely experimental construction, given the offshore depth of the extraction with costs to match, signaling a depletion of “safer” inland wells. And the liabilities it generated (both directly from the spill and indirectly from political reforms instated afterwards and insurance demanded for future rigs) dwarfed the revenue it produced.
There’s still oil in the well Horizon had drilled and we could still conceivably build another rig to go back and keep mining it. But we won’t, because the costs exceed the expected revenues. If we ever see $200-300 bbl gasoline, a business might have the monetary incentive to return. But if wind/solar/nuclear become a cost-efficient replacement, there will never been an economic incentive to rebuild on that patch. We will have passed the point at which oil extraction makes financial sense.