Ukrainian forces have advanced three to four kilometers into Russia’s Belgorod region, engaging in battles with Russian troops, according to Russian military bloggers and independent analysts.
Military expert Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group told Reuters Ukrainian troops had penetrated Russia’s first line of defense, though he noted that their ability to launch a major breakthrough remains unlikely.
These small pushes are important to counter the narrative that it is only Russians making these small pushes.
That said, the front hasn’t moved significantly in a year. I hope this senseless killing will stop, but I am not hopeful. It really seems that as long as there is a Russia in its current form, war will not stop.
Pushing a few extra km to take out anti air to make further air strikes possible is probably a big win for them as well.
That’s a whole first line of defense not disrupting or alerting to attacks now.
Not an expert but this is how I see it.
Ukraine has had limited options for strategy on this war. Russia had a massive equipment/ammo advantage at the start. Ukraines has been limited. So any major push with a major loss of equipment would hurt Ukraine more than they gained. Ukraine has spent most of the war on the defensive grinding down Russians stockpiles.
In order to win the war, Ukraine has to destroy most of Russias stockpile of munitions first. Then a push across the front to reclaim territory is possible. Small pushes like this are to force Russia to move more equipment especially artillery closer to the front so Ukraine can knock it out.
Not something I’ve thought about before, but if anything, the Kursk incursion showed russia that they have to respond seriously to Ukraine crossing the border and move in a lot of troops and equipment.
This means that when Ukraine does something like this, russia is forced to respond in force, and move a lot of gear around. With the current state of russian equipment and the drone war, moving a lot of equipment is likely to result in quite a few losses, both because of wear and stuff breaking down on its own, and because concentrations of gear and troops on the move are prime targets for Ukrainian drones.
